I have (yet) another theory

The more I think about the Adam Lambert phenomenon, the more I'm struck with the sense that there's a distinct ceiling to his popularity. He is, very much, What He Is. There is nobody like him on the show, and he's not splitting his votes with anybody else, I don't think. The flipside, however, is that nobody is splitting their votes with him, which suggests to me that he won't profit from the eliminations to come. I mean, he's not going to pick up the votes that become available when Anoop Desai or Matt Giraud get bounced over the next few weeks. Danny Gokey, on the other hand, might. Allison Iraheta might. Kris Allen might. Adam, on the other hand, has shown us more or less his entire hand by now, and people's minds are pretty much made up. I'm not sure he's picking up new fans at this point so much as keeping his fanbase at a full boil. Which is good for him. But it also means that there's a limit to how far they can take him. And I think that limit lies somewhere before the finale.

So I guess what I'm saying is, he's clearly capable of winning plurality after plurality. I'm not so sure he can muster up a majority.